Absa Post-Budget Forum: Ggoobi stands firm on positive economic outlook despite skepticism

KAMPALA, Uganda — Finance Ministry Permanent Secretary and Secretary to the Treasury Ramathan Ggoobi has strongly pushed back against skeptics of Uganda’s economic progress, declaring it foolhardy for anyone to dismiss the country’s growth trajectory.

Ggoobi made the remarks Friday at the fifth edition of the Absa Post-Budget Forum, a high-level annual engagement that brings together key stakeholders from government, the private sector, development partners, academia and the media to unpack the implications of the national budget following the Thursday reading.

“What do you see about inflation, about the exchange rate, about availability of the foreign exchange in the country, about the growth of economic activity itself? The economy is doing well at a macro level and it’s only someone who’s not actually very honest and goodwill who can say any different,” Ggoobi said.

His comments come as the government revealed a series of macroeconomic milestones and fiscal measures with positive potential for the private sector, with gross domestic product standing at 69.3 billion dollars today. The economy is projected to grow by up to 10 percent in fiscal year 2026-27, which would translate into an expansion of approximately 80 billion dollars.

Notably, the projected 10 percent growth is expected before the commencement of commercial oil production, positioning oil as an additional catalyst for expansion.

On the trade front, Uganda’s exports reached 18 billion dollars in the 12 months ending March 2026, with the country having added 31 new products to its export basket over the last 15 years, including pharmaceuticals, refined gold, steel products, ICT products, ceramics, plastics and dairy products.

Absa Bank Uganda Chief Finance Officer Michael Segwaya also acknowledged the encouraging macro environment while urging all stakeholders to focus on converting this momentum into tangible outcomes for the economy.

During the panel discussion at the forum, Segwaya said, “Every national budget tells a story. Beyond the numbers, it reflects the choices a country is making about its future, the opportunities it seeks to unlock and the challenges it is prepared to confront.”

Segwaya added, “Optimism alone is not enough. The real question is how we convert this moment into lasting impact for businesses, households and communities across the country.”

Ggoobi also reminded the audience that the largest share of government revenue is generated through taxation, making economic growth and compliance critical to funding national priorities. He explained that approximately 95 percent of the budget has been allocated toward what he termed the ATMs of the economy, meaning agriculture, technology and manufacturing, as the most productive sectors along with their enablers. He stressed a renewed emphasis on implementation discipline to ensure that planned outcomes are actually delivered on the ground.

He also highlighted key measures introduced to strengthen budget discipline and accountability, including a requirement for accounting officers to sign a Budget Discipline and Accountability Charter, a move designed to reinforce personal responsibility for the management of public resources.

The planned reduction in domestic borrowing from 11.4 trillion Ugandan shillings to 9.0 trillion shillings is a welcome step toward fiscal consolidation, as this should ease pressure on local credit markets and support more affordable capital for businesses.

Equally significant is the substantial increase in allocations for clearing domestic arrears from 200 billion shillings to 1.4 trillion shillings, aimed at providing much-needed liquidity to small and medium enterprises, contractors and suppliers, strengthening business confidence and continuity. GDP per capita now stands at 1,278 dollars, above the 1,136 dollar threshold for lower middle-income country status.

On energy, Uganda’s electricity generation capacity has grown from 60 megawatts in 1986 to 2,098 megawatts, with a long-term ambition of reaching 50,000 megawatts through a diversified mix of hydro, solar, gas, wind, nuclear and geothermal sources.

To support affordable financing, the government has capitalized the Uganda Development Bank with approximately 1.6 trillion shillings, offering lending rates of 12 percent per annum, while the Parish Development Model is providing loans at 6 percent interest to approximately 3.7 million households.