Bank of Uganda maintains Central Bank Rate at 9.75%, signals confidence in economic recovery

KAMPALA, 10 November 2025 — The Bank of Uganda (BoU) has maintained the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 9.75%, citing steady economic growth, subdued inflation, and improving domestic conditions, while remaining cautious of persistent global risks.

The decision was announced by Governor Michael Atingi-Ego on Monday, November 10, 2025, following a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The move reflects the central bank’s confidence in the strengthening economy and its commitment to safeguarding price stability.

Inflation remains low
Uganda’s inflation has stayed below the medium-term target of 5%, supported by prudent monetary policy, a stronger exchange rate, and favourable energy prices. Over the past 12 months, headline inflation averaged 3.6%, while core inflation averaged 3.9%.

In October 2025, headline inflation eased to 3.4% from 4.0% in September, driven by declines in both core and food crop prices. Core inflation fell to 3.4% from 4.0%, reflecting lower costs in education, accommodation services, and other goods. Food crops inflation moderated to 6.1% from 7.4%, aided by favourable weather conditions, while Energy, Fuel, and Utilities (EFU) inflation edged slightly higher to 0.1% from -0.1%.

The MPC revised the inflation outlook slightly downward. Core inflation is projected to range between 4.0% and 4.5% in FY2025/26, compared to a previous forecast of 4.5–4.8%, remaining below the 5% target.

Balanced risks
The committee noted that risks to the inflation outlook remain both upside and downside. Upside risks include global geopolitical tensions, adverse weather affecting agriculture, exchange rate pressures, and stronger domestic demand. Downside risks include continued capital inflows from the oil sector, favourable weather boosting food supply, and easing global monetary conditions reducing imported inflation.

Economic growth prospects
Uganda’s economy grew 6.3% in FY2024/25, up from 6.1% the previous year, led by agriculture and industrial activity. Increased consumption and investment further supported growth. High-frequency indicators suggest continued confidence in FY2025/26, with GDP expected to expand 6.5–7.0%, rising to an average of around 8% in the medium term.

The growth outlook is underpinned by Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy, which is unlocking opportunities in agriculture, infrastructure, and extractive industries. A major global credit rating agency recently upgraded Uganda’s outlook to positive from stable, citing stronger momentum compared to regional peers.

Monetary policy stance
The MPC emphasized that the current CBR of 9.75% remains appropriate to maintain inflation near the medium-term target while supporting growth. The CBR band is maintained at ±2 percentage points, with the rediscount and bank rates set at 12.75% and 13.75%, respectively.

Governor Atingi-Ego stressed that future adjustments to the policy rate will be data-driven, reflecting ongoing assessment of domestic and global risks. “The decision underscores the BoU’s commitment to containing inflation while supporting sustainable economic growth in a dynamic macroeconomic environment,” he said.