Overview:
Intra-African trade fuels a massive economic comeback for the EAC, driving a trade surplus and signaling significant progress in regional integration.
ARUSHA, Tanzania — The East African Community’s economy has made a dramatic comeback, posting a UGX 3 trillion ($0.8 billion) trade surplus in the first quarter of 2025. This marks a stunning reversal from the UGX 15 trillion ($4.0 billion) deficit recorded a year prior. According to the EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin, this resurgence was largely driven by a massive surge in intra-African trade.
The bulletin revealed that exports from the EAC jumped by 47.3% to UGX 66.4 trillion ($17.7 billion), far outpacing the 4.6% rise in imports. A key factor was the 53.9% growth in trade among African nations, which now accounts for 27.5% of the region’s total trade. This includes a 53.6% increase in intra-EAC trade, reaching UGX 19.5 trillion ($5.2 billion), signaling significant progress in regional integration.
Beyond Africa, the EAC also saw a notable shift with its top trading partner, China. For the first time in recent years, the region registered a UGX 6.8 trillion ($1.8 billion) trade surplus with China, driven by increased exports and a slight decline in imports.
Despite these gains, the report highlighted a persistent challenge: inflation. Annual headline inflation in the EAC soared to 27.0% in March 2025, a significant leap from the 6.7% rate in March 2024. The spike was mainly fueled by pressures in South Sudan and Burundi, and food inflation remained a concern at 49.4%.
Monetary indicators, however, showed signs of cautious optimism. The report noted that the broad money supply expanded by 10.1%, while credit to the private sector grew by 5.5%. This reflects a slow but steady recovery in business activity and investor confidence across the region. Households remained the biggest borrowers, holding UGX 51.8 trillion ($13.8 billion) in outstanding loans.