Uganda’s e-mobility ambition faces systems test

KAMPALA. Uganda’s electric mobility ambitions are entering a more difficult phase: moving from putting electric vehicles on the road to building the systems that can support millions of them.

A World Bank diagnostic says Uganda could have between about 800,000 and four million electric vehicles on its roads by 2040, depending on the pace of adoption. Electric motorcycles are expected to account for the bulk of the fleet.

But the report says the success of the transition will depend less on the availability of electricity than on whether Uganda can plan for when and where that electricity will be consumed, while fixing regulatory, financing, charging and institutional gaps.

This puts Uganda’s e-mobility programme at a critical juncture. The country has a National E-Mobility Strategy and fiscal incentives aimed at encouraging investment, but the World Bank says some of the supporting systems remain fragmented or unclear.

The Diagnostic Study on E-Mobility Market Development in Uganda, published by the World Bank this year, identifies regulatory uncertainty, limited charging infrastructure, inconsistent access to tax incentives, skills shortages and weaknesses in electricity distribution planning among the barriers to faster market development.

The study’s central warning is that Uganda should prepare the transport, energy and urban systems before the electric vehicle market reaches scale.

The grid test

Electric motorcycles are already providing the first major test.

The World Bank says battery-swapping stations in Uganda increased from about 150 in mid-2024 to more than 350 by late 2025, showing how quickly the market can create new electricity demand.

Motorcycles are particularly important because they account for more than 60 per cent of Uganda’s registered vehicle fleet and dominate urban and informal transport.

The study projects that electricity consumption by electric vehicles in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area could reach about 290 gigawatt-hours in 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario, 583GWh under moderate growth and about 1,100GWh under accelerated growth.

The accelerated scenario would still represent a manageable share of total electricity demand. The problem, the World Bank says, is the pressure that could occur on particular parts of the distribution network when many vehicles charge simultaneously.

The modelling identified risks including overloaded lines and transformers, voltage problems and increased technical losses under higher electric vehicle uptake.

In Kampala, Mukono and Wakiso, accelerated electric vehicle growth with limited smart charging could add about 196 megawatts to peak demand in 2030. With high levels of smart charging, the increase could fall to about 93MW.

In other words, the number of electric vehicles alone does not determine the pressure on the grid. How and when they charge matters almost as much.

The World Bank recommends smart charging and time-of-use tariffs to shift charging away from peak periods, alongside targeted reinforcement of the distribution network.

It argues that this could reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by allowing utilities to manage demand before investing in additional capacity.

A market ahead of its rules

The electricity challenge is only one part of the transition.

The diagnostic says Uganda has established institutions to coordinate e-mobility, but responsibilities remain unclear in some areas, particularly around charging infrastructure, standards and coordination between government agencies.

This creates uncertainty for private investors that need to know who approves charging stations, what standards apply and how long fiscal incentives will remain in place.

The study found that although government has introduced tax measures intended to support electric mobility, companies have faced uncertainty over eligibility, accreditation and customs treatment.

For businesses, such uncertainty can raise the cost of investment because companies cannot easily calculate the cost of importing components, setting up assembly plants or expanding charging networks.

The World Bank therefore treats regulatory clarity as an investment issue rather than merely an administrative one.

The manufacturing question

Uganda also wants to use e-mobility to support local manufacturing.

The National E-Mobility Strategy targets production of 500,000 electric vehicles by 2030. But the World Bank diagnostic calls for a feasibility assessment to establish whether production at that scale is commercially viable against projected domestic demand.

The report’s modelling points to about 326,000 electric vehicles sold in 2030 under its accelerated market scenario, below the government’s production target.

This raises a broader industrial-policy question: whether Uganda’s e-mobility strategy should be driven primarily by production targets or by the size of the market, export opportunities, component supply chains and the availability of competitive finance.

The early market is already being driven largely by electric two-wheelers, with private operators developing battery-swapping networks. The World Bank says high upfront vehicle costs and limited access to affordable credit remain barriers even where electric vehicles can have lower operating costs.

Kampala’s transport problem

The transition also exposes a weakness in treating e-mobility simply as a vehicle replacement exercise.

Kampala’s transport system is dominated by boda bodas and minibuses, meaning that electrification will interact with the wider problems of public transport planning, routes, ownership and financing.

The World Bank says large-scale electrification of buses is unlikely without reforms to the public transport system.

It recommends a minibus electrification plan linked to paratransit reforms and a separate roadmap for buses and Bus Rapid Transit, beginning with three to five high-density corridors and an electric-bus pilot.

The implication is that replacing a petrol or diesel vehicle with an electric one does not automatically solve congestion, inefficient routes or weak public transport planning.

Infrastructure must follow the market

Charging infrastructure presents another investment challenge.

The World Bank says charging and battery-swapping facilities should be located according to transport demand, including at boda-boda stages, markets, taxi parks and other high-traffic locations.

It also recommends that new buildings be designed with adequate electrical capacity and conduits for future charging points.

This would shift part of the cost of the transition from retrofitting existing infrastructure to planning for e-mobility during construction.

The same principle applies to the electricity network. Rather than waiting for demand to appear and then reinforcing overloaded sections, the report recommends incorporating electric vehicle demand into a national Distribution Master Plan.

Skills and the informal economy

The transition will also create a new demand for technicians capable of maintaining electric motorcycles, vehicles, charging equipment and batteries.

The World Bank says existing skills initiatives are fragmented and that informal mechanics, who form a large part of Uganda’s vehicle-maintenance economy, are largely outside formal training and certification systems.

It proposes a national skilling programme for technicians, drivers and policymakers, including pathways for informal workers to obtain certification.

That could become an important part of the economic transition because the shift to electric transport will happen not only in factories and government offices but also in garages, boda-boda stages and battery-swapping stations.

From policy to implementation

The World Bank’s roadmap contains 18 actions covering governance, market development and power-system readiness. Among the priorities are clearer regulation, affordable finance, charging standards, smart-charging pilots, targeted grid investment, a national distribution plan that incorporates electric vehicle demand and programmes for boda bodas and public transport.

The report’s message is therefore not that Uganda’s electricity system cannot support electric transport. Rather, it is that the cost and reliability of the transition will depend on how early the country prepares for new demand.

Uganda is moving from the question of whether electric vehicles can work in the country to a more consequential question: whether its power network, transport institutions, cities, financiers, manufacturers and regulators can move at the same speed as the market.

For now, the electric motorcycle market is providing evidence that demand can develop faster than the supporting systems. The policy challenge is to ensure that infrastructure and regulation do not become the bottlenecks after the vehicles have already arrived.