Uganda’s April inflation rises on higher fuel, transport costs

KAMPALA — Uganda’s annual headline inflation rose slightly to 3.0 percent in April 2026, up from 2.8 percent in March, with surging fuel and transport costs emerging as the main drivers of the increase.

According to the latest data released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), the rise in inflation reflects growing pressure from the energy sector, even as food prices remained relatively subdued.

UBOS said the upward movement in prices was largely linked to increases in liquid fuel costs, which continue to ripple through key sectors of the economy, particularly transport and services.

“The increase in annual headline inflation for April 2026 is mainly attributed to rising prices in energy fuel and utilities, especially petrol and diesel,” UBOS said in its statement.

Fuel Prices Drive Inflation Surge

The Energy, Fuel and Utilities (EFU) sector recorded the most significant jump, with annual inflation rising to 6.1 percent in April from 4.1 percent in March.

Diesel prices registered the sharpest increase, rising by 10.8 percent compared to 3.0 percent the previous month. Petrol prices also climbed significantly, with inflation rising to 8.7 percent from 4.4 percent in March. Kerosene and charcoal prices similarly recorded notable increases, reflecting broader energy cost pressures.

Analysts say the sustained rise in fuel prices is beginning to filter through the wider economy, raising the cost of doing business and household expenditure.

The rise in fuel costs translated directly into higher transport fares. Inflation in the transport sector more than doubled to 3.6 percent in April, up from 1.6 percent in March.

Passenger transport services recorded a noticeable increase during the month, underscoring how fuel price movements are quickly passed on to consumers.

Core inflation—which excludes volatile items such as food crops and energy—also edged up to 3.0 percent, pointing to underlying price pressures beyond fuel and food.

UBOS attributed this increase to rising costs in restaurants, accommodation, and financial services.

“Core inflation increased due to higher prices in services, particularly restaurants and insurance-related services,” the agency noted.

Notably, insurance and financial services recorded double-digit inflation, suggesting growing cost pressures in non-tradable sectors of the economy.

Food Prices Offer Limited Relief

Despite the rise in fuel and service costs, food crop inflation slowed to 0.6 percent in April, down from 1.0 percent in March.

Prices of several commonly consumed items declined significantly. Tomatoes and mangoes registered sharp price drops, while staples such as sweet potatoes also became slightly cheaper.

However, this relief was uneven. Prices for protein-based foods such as fish and chicken continued to rise, limiting the overall benefit to households.

The mixed performance in food prices highlights the ongoing volatility in Uganda’s agricultural markets, where seasonal factors and supply dynamics continue to influence price movements.

Regional Inflation Patterns

Inflation trends varied across different regions of the country.

Masaka recorded the highest annual inflation at 4.1 percent, driven by increases in both transport and food prices. Kampala’s high-income areas followed closely, with inflation at 3.8 percent.

In contrast, Mbale registered the lowest inflation rate at 1.0 percent, largely due to declines in food and accommodation costs.

These regional differences reflect varying local economic conditions, including supply chains, consumption patterns, and cost structures.

Outlook: Emerging Price Pressures

UBOS indicated that while headline inflation remains relatively moderate, the monthly increase in April points to building price pressures.

“The monthly headline inflation increased, indicating a faster rise in prices during April compared to March,” said Dr. Chris N. Mukiza, Executive Director of UBOS.

The data suggests that energy costs are once again becoming a central driver of inflation, a trend that could shape the country’s cost-of-living outlook in the coming months.

Economists warn that if fuel prices continue to rise, the gains from easing food prices may be offset, leading to broader inflationary pressure across the economy.

For households, the latest figures reinforce a familiar reality: even modest increases in headline inflation can translate into noticeable strain, particularly when driven by essentials such as transport and energy.