Gold exports widen Uganda’s trade surplus with Middle East

Uganda’s trade surplus with the Middle East widened in August, supported by gold exports to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), even as the country’s trade deficit with the East African Community (EAC) surged, highlighting the uneven performance of its regional trade.

According to the September 2026 Performance of the Economy Report, Uganda recorded a trade surplus of $735.46 million with the Middle East in August, up from $650.47 million in July and $316.24 million in August 2025.

The Bank of Uganda (BoU) attributed the increase largely to gold exports to the UAE, underscoring the growing contribution of the precious metal to Uganda’s export earnings.

The surplus with the Middle East was the largest among Uganda’s trading regions during the month, while the European Union (EU) was the only other trading bloc with which the country recorded a positive trade balance.

However, Uganda’s trade surplus with the EU narrowed slightly to $57.49 million in August, down from $61.22 million in July, although it remained above the $49.38 million recorded in August last year.

The gains from these two markets were offset by widening trade deficits with other regions, particularly the EAC and Asia.

Uganda’s trade deficit with the EAC widened by 64.7 per cent to $730.27 million in August, from $443.27 million in July. This made the regional bloc Uganda’s largest source of trade imbalance during the month.

The deficit with Asia also increased to $555.57 million, compared with $510.81 million in July and $289.26 million in August 2025.

Trade with the rest of Africa deteriorated sharply, shifting from a surplus of $34.64 million in July to a deficit of $298.99 million in August.

The figures point to a growing divergence in Uganda’s external trade performance, with export earnings from gold helping to sustain a substantial surplus with the Middle East while the country’s trade position weakened in several other markets.

A trade deficit occurs when the value of imports exceeds that of exports, while a surplus indicates that exports are greater than imports. The figures, however, do not by themselves establish whether the changes were driven by import volumes, export prices or other factors.

Uganda also recorded deficits with the rest of Europe and other countries in August, although these were considerably smaller. The deficit with the rest of Europe stood at $9.28 million, compared with $6.7 million in July, while that with other countries widened to $15.88 million from $10.32 million.

The performance highlights the importance of examining both the value and composition of Uganda’s exports as policymakers pursue efforts to expand foreign exchange earnings and strengthen the country’s external position.

While gold exports have helped Uganda generate substantial surpluses in the Middle East, the widening deficits with the EAC and Asia point to persistent imbalances in trade with other key markets.

The September report’s regional breakdown does not provide sufficient detail to establish the specific products responsible for the widening deficits. Further analysis of commodity-level exports and imports would be needed to determine the extent to which the changes reflect increased imports, weaker exports or shifts in commodity prices.