KAMPALA — Uganda’s petroleum regulator has entered a critical leadership transition just as the country moves from developing its oil projects to preparing for commercial production.

Ernest Rubondo, the pioneer Executive Director of the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU), left office on August 31 after completing the maximum two terms, leaving the regulator under an acting chief as the country closes in on first oil.

The timing makes the search for his successor more consequential. PAU is moving into a phase in which its responsibilities will shift from primarily supervising project development to regulating actual production, crude marketing, national content and the wider commercial petroleum value chain.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development and the PAU board have placed the Authority’s Director of Finance, Otonga Ochan, in the acting position as the recruitment of a substantive Executive Director continues.

Permanent Secretary Irene Pauline Batebe confirmed that the transition had begun but did not give a timeline for appointing the substantive head.

The leadership gap comes despite the Authority having started the recruitment process months before Rubondo’s contract expired. The position was advertised in December 2025, roughly eight months ahead of his departure, in anticipation that a successor would be in place by the end of his tenure.

That has not happened.

The delay leaves the regulator temporarily headed by an official whose substantive responsibilities are in finance at a time when PAU is expected to make increasingly technical and commercially significant regulatory decisions.

A regulator at a turning point

Rubondo’s departure marks the end of the first phase of PAU’s institutional development.

As its inaugural Executive Director, he presided over the establishment and expansion of the regulator and its oversight of Uganda’s flagship petroleum projects, including the Kingfisher and Tilenga developments and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline.

Those projects are now approaching completion.

The Kingfisher Development Area, operated by China National Offshore Oil Corporation, is about 80 per cent complete, while preparedness for first oil is estimated at 98 per cent. It is expected to produce about 40,000 barrels of crude per day at peak.

Tilenga, operated by TotalEnergies, is expected to reach about 190,000 barrels per day at peak production, while construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline is about 92.7 per cent complete.

The regulator therefore faces a different set of challenges from those it confronted during the development phase.

Once production begins, PAU will have to maintain close oversight of production volumes, technical standards, field operations, environmental and safety requirements, national content obligations and the movement and marketing of crude.

The country has also now settled on Sweet Pearl Crude as the blending name for crude produced from the Albertine Graben, giving Uganda’s oil a commercial identity as it prepares to enter the international market.

This transition raises the stakes around who eventually takes over PAU and whether the appointment process can deliver a leader with the technical, regulatory and institutional experience required for the next phase.

Succession process

The Ministry of Energy has not publicly disclosed the shortlist for the position or explained why the process has extended beyond Rubondo’s departure.

The recruitment exercise began in December last year, giving government considerable time to complete the process before the end of his second term.

The absence of a substantive appointment means the incoming Executive Director will inherit an institution already deeply involved in the final stages of Uganda’s oil projects, rather than one preparing for them from scratch.

The appointment is also taking place against the backdrop of Uganda’s plans for another petroleum licensing round covering the Kadam-Moroto, Lake Kyoga and Hoima basins.

Among the officials with experience relevant to the position is Fred Kabanda, a geologist and geoscientist who previously served as Assistant Commissioner for Oil and Gas Development and Production in the former Petroleum Exploration and Production Department. He currently heads the Non-Renewable Natural Resources Division at the African Development Bank’s African Natural Resources Management and Investment Centre.

However, there has been no official confirmation that Kabanda is the preferred candidate or that his name has formally been submitted to the appointing authority.

The recruitment process has attracted interest within the petroleum sector, with attention focused on the qualifications and experience of potential candidates and the eventual decision on who will lead PAU into commercial production.

Beyond first oil

The next PAU chief will inherit an industry in which billions of dollars have already been committed and where government expects petroleum to generate wider economic opportunities.

The government estimates that about $7 billion has so far been invested in Uganda’s petroleum sector, with Ugandan businesses securing contracts and opportunities worth about $2.27 billion.

That economic footprint means PAU’s role extends beyond approving technical petroleum operations. Its regulatory decisions will increasingly affect investors, suppliers, workers, communities and government revenues.

The substantive Executive Director will therefore be expected to balance the interests of investors with regulatory compliance, while ensuring that the country’s oil resources are developed within the legal and technical framework established by government.

For PAU, the immediate challenge is maintaining institutional continuity during the leadership transition.

For Uganda, the bigger question is whether the regulator will have a permanent leadership team in place as the country crosses from nearly two decades of oil development into the reality of producing and selling crude.