Uganda Revenue Authority targets 18% tax-to-GDP ratio in new five-year plan

KAMPALA, Uganda — The Uganda Revenue Authority has launched a five-year strategic plan to raise the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio to 18% by 2030, aiming to break years of revenue stagnation.

The 2025-2030 strategy seeks to overhaul domestic revenue mobilization and reduce Uganda’s reliance on a narrow group of taxpayers. While the economy has expanded, tax revenues have historically failed to keep pace, with the tax-to-GDP ratio hovering around 13%—well below regional and continental averages.

The plan is a central component of the government’s broader goal to grow the economy from $50 billion to $500 billion by 2040.

To reach these targets, URA Commissioner General John Musinguzi said the agency will recruit 1,500 new staff members to strengthen enforcement and monitor the emerging oil and gas sector. The authority also plans to shift toward predictive tax administration by using artificial intelligence and machine learning to detect noncompliance.

“Key pillars and initiatives for the URA 2025–2030 strategy include digital transformation and data-driven enforcement,” the report stated, noting a move away from reactive measures.

Current data highlights a significant imbalance in the tax system. Although the tax register includes 3.5 million taxpayers, more than 70% of revenue is generated by only 1,000 individuals and companies.

To broaden the base, the URA will integrate data across government agencies and begin using National Identification Numbers as Tax Identification Numbers. However, analysts warn that this move must be balanced with data privacy protections to maintain public trust.

Bill Nkeeto, dean of the Faculty of Business and Management at Victoria University, said the authority must find ways to tax the informal sector, which represents a large portion of economic activity but remains largely outside the tax net. He suggested focusing on high-growth areas such as tourism, agro-industry and ICT.

Musinguzi also noted the agency will expand the use of alternative dispute resolution to settle legal battles faster and speed up revenue recovery.

While the strategy has been met with optimism, some experts expressed concern that high targets could increase the burden on already compliant taxpayers if the authority fails to bring new participants into the system.