Uganda outpaces Kenya, Tanzania in 2026 economic projections

KAMPALA, Uganda — Uganda is expected to outpace regional neighbors Kenya and Tanzania in economic growth this year, according to a new World Bank report that ranks the country among the fastest-growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Global Economic Prospects 2026 report forecasts Uganda’s economy will expand by 6.4 percent. This projection places Uganda ahead of Tanzania’s 6.2 percent and significantly higher than Kenya’s 4.9 percent. In the East African Community, only Rwanda is projected to grow faster at 7.2 percent.

The World Bank noted that Uganda’s strong outlook is supported by a recovery in domestic demand and resilient export performance, particularly in the coffee sector. Following a 6.3 percent growth rate in 2025, the country is maintaining its strongest economic momentum since the pandemic.

Uganda’s growth reflects a combination of domestic demand recovery and export resilience, the report stated. Increased government spending and a rebound in household consumption have also contributed to the upward trend.

The broader sub-Saharan African region is expected to see growth firm up to 4.3 percent in 2026, aided by easing inflation and higher prices for commodities like gold and coffee. However, the World Bank cautioned that the recovery across the continent remains fragile and insufficient to meaningfully reduce extreme poverty.

The report also highlighted risks from global trade fragmentation. Nations with heavy reliance on the U.S. market, such as Kenya and South Africa, face potential headwinds if the African Growth and Opportunity Act is not renewed after its scheduled expiration in late 2025.

While Uganda remains less exposed to these specific trade shifts, the World Bank warned that a reduction in official development assistance since 2024 has left many regional governments with limited capacity to handle external economic shocks.