Uganda feels the pinch as Brazil, Vietnam record bumper coffee harvests

Coffee prices in Uganda have dropped sharply following a surge in global supply, triggered by bumper harvests in Brazil and Vietnam—the world’s top two producers.

The benchmark C-price—the global trading price for green Arabica coffee on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York—has declined significantly in recent weeks. This decline, which also affects Robusta prices, is now being felt across Uganda’s coffee-producing regions.

According to Dr. Gerald Kyalo, Commissioner for Coffee Development at the Ministry of Agriculture, global supply trends directly influence local prices.

“Coffee is traded like oil and gold in the futures market, and global prices depend heavily on harvest forecasts. For the past two years, poor harvests in Brazil and Vietnam pushed prices up. But now, both countries are reporting strong yields, which has triggered a price slump,” he said.

Brazil is expected to harvest 61 million bags, while Vietnam forecasts 31 million bags in the 2025/26 season. The resulting global oversupply has cut into Uganda’s earnings, despite strong export volumes.

Local Prices Plummet

On June 25, the farmgate price of Robusta FAQ (Kase) dropped to between Shs10,000 and Shs11,000 per kilogram, down from Shs13,000 to Shs14,000 two weeks earlier. In rural areas, prices have fallen to Shs8,000.

Similarly, Robusta Kiboko is trading between Shs5,000 and Shs5,500 at farmgate and as low as Shs4,000 at local collection points. Green bean prices have halved from Shs3,000 to Shs1,500 per kilogram.

Arabica parchment is now selling at Shs14,000–15,000, while Drugar (dried Ugandan Arabica) fetches Shs14,000/kg.

These price drops have alarmed farmers and exporters, who invested heavily in the last two years when prices were at record highs due to climate-related shortfalls in Brazil and Vietnam.

Uganda’s Export Success at Risk

Despite falling prices, Uganda had a strong performance over the past year. Between June 2024 and May 2025, Uganda exported 7.4 million 60-kg bags of coffee, earning $2.09 billion (Shs7.5 trillion)—a sharp increase from 6.08 million bags worth $1.08 billion (Shs3.8 trillion) in the previous period.

In May 2025, Uganda overtook Ethiopia as Africa’s top coffee exporter, shipping 47,606 tons worth $243 million (Shs873.9 billion). Ethiopia exported 43,481 tons during the same period.

Uganda’s major coffee markets include Italy, Germany, Spain, India, Sudan, Belgium, China, Algeria, the U.S., and Morocco, according to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) monthly report.

But with global prices tumbling, earnings from these exports are likely to dip unless production costs are reined in or specialty coffee premiums are tapped into.

Global Dynamics Shift

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil remains the world’s top coffee producer, forecast to produce 66.4 million bags in 2024/25. Vietnam follows with 30.1 million bags, while Uganda ranks sixth globally, with 6.4 million bags.

Recent data from Nasdaq indicates that as of June 11, Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest was 35 percent complete, with 49 percent of Robusta and 26 percent of Arabica already picked. Rain slowed Arabica harvesting but has not significantly altered yield forecasts.

Brazil’s Cooxupe cooperative, the country’s largest coffee exporter, reported that its members had completed 24.3 percent of their harvest by June 20, compared to 34.2 percent at the same time last year.

A May 2025 USDA report predicted a 0.5% increase in Brazil’s annual coffee production and a 6.9% rise in Vietnam’s, signaling a major rebound from previous droughts that had suppressed global supply.

“What’s happening in Brazil and Vietnam will continue to shape global coffee prices. Unfortunately, that means Ugandan farmers will earn less even when they produce more,” Dr. Kyalo said.

As Uganda pushes to increase exports, analysts say the focus must now shift toward improving quality, branding, and entering specialty markets to offset the volatility of global commodity prices.