How Uganda’s oil dream outlived five Energy ministers and four Finance chiefs

KAMPALA: When then Finance minister Maria Kiwanuka jokingly told her Energy counterpart Irene Muloni in 2013 that Uganda’s oil belonged to Energy only as long as it remained underground, few imagined that more than a decade later the country would still be waiting for its first barrel of commercial oil.

“Hon. Irene, the oil is yours for as long as it remains under the ground. Immediately you get it out, it will be mine,” Kiwanuka remarked during a high-level dialogue on Uganda’s petroleum future.

The comment captured the optimism of the time. Uganda had already discovered commercially viable oil reserves, infrastructure plans were taking shape and government officials were projecting that production was only a few years away.

Yet 13 years later, first oil remains a promise deferred.

The story of Uganda’s petroleum sector is increasingly becoming one of shifting timelines, changing ministers and evolving expectations rather than actual production.

Since President Museveni first announced in 2006 that commercial production could begin by 2009, Uganda has repeatedly revised its timelines. Targets of 2010, 2013, 2018, 2020, 2025 and now 2026 have all come and gone without a single drop of commercial oil flowing from the Albertine Graben.

In the process, five Energy ministers and four Finance ministers have entered and exited office without witnessing the milestone they once promised.

The early years were dominated by exploration and resource estimation. Under then Energy minister Syda Bbumba, government announced discoveries estimated at 3.5 billion barrels, raising expectations that Uganda was on the verge of joining Africa’s oil-producing nations.

Her successor, Daudi Migereko, projected first oil by 2010 and anticipated rapid development of production infrastructure. Those projections never materialised as negotiations over taxation, production agreements and field development plans took longer than anticipated.

The sector later entered a turbulent phase under Hilary Onek, whose tenure was marked by disputes over capital gains tax, disagreements involving international oil companies and heightened scrutiny from Parliament over transparency and governance.

The controversies slowed progress but also forced government to strengthen the legal and regulatory framework governing the sector.

By the time Irene Muloni assumed the Energy docket, attention had shifted from exploration to preparing for production. Together with Finance minister Maria Kiwanuka and later Matia Kasaija, government pushed through reforms that created key institutions, including the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC), and established rules for managing future petroleum revenues.

Parliament also demanded stronger oversight amid concerns that Uganda could fall victim to the so-called “resource curse” that has affected several oil-producing countries.

While these reforms delayed production, supporters argue they laid the groundwork for greater accountability once oil revenues begin flowing.

The biggest breakthrough came in 2022 when Uganda, Tanzania and international oil companies reached the Final Investment Decision (FID) for the Tilenga, Kingfisher and East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) projects.

The agreement unlocked an estimated $15 billion (about Shs55 trillion) in investment and was hailed as the clearest signal yet that first oil was finally within reach.

Government subsequently increased spending on oil-related infrastructure, including roads, Kabalega International Airport, industrial parks and the capitalisation of UNOC.

However, fresh challenges emerged.

Environmental and human rights concerns surrounding EACOP attracted sustained opposition from local and international activists, contributing to financing delays and renewed uncertainty over timelines.

Meanwhile, government continued to invest heavily in anticipation of future revenues. In the 2024/25 financial year alone, nearly Shs920 billion was allocated to the oil and gas sector.

Ironically, both Matia Kasaija and Ruth Nankabirwa—the ministers most closely associated with preparations for first oil—left Cabinet months before the latest projected production date.

Their successors, Henry Musasizi at Finance and Monica Musenero at Energy, now inherit a project that has survived political transitions, legal disputes, tax battles and multiple deadline revisions.

If current timelines hold, they could finally oversee the long-awaited transition from oil potential to oil production.

For Uganda, however, the bigger lesson may be that building an oil industry involves far more than drilling wells. It requires institutions, infrastructure, financing, regulation and public trust.

Nearly two decades after the first production target was announced, the country’s oil story remains unfinished. Whether 2026 finally delivers first oil or produces another missed deadline will determine whether Uganda’s petroleum sector becomes an economic game changer or remains one of the region’s longest-running development promises.