Fuel prices push Uganda’s inflation up to 3.2% in May

KAMPALA — Uganda’s annual headline inflation rose to 3.2 percent in the year ending May 2026, up from 3.0 percent recorded in April, driven largely by increases in transport costs and fuel prices, according to the latest figures from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS).

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released at the weekend shows that while inflation remains within the government’s target range, rising fuel costs are beginning to exert pressure on household budgets and business operations.

UBOS said the main drivers of the increase were higher prices for services and liquid energy fuels.

“The Annual Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Uganda for the 12 months to May 2026 was 3.2 percent compared to 3.0 percent registered in the year ended April 2026. The main drivers of the 3.2 percent inflation were services and liquid energy fuels,” the report states.

Annual services inflation increased to 4.6 percent in May from 4.1 percent in April, largely due to higher transport charges.

According to the report, annual passenger road transport inflation rose sharply to 10.6 percent in May, compared to 2.2 percent in April.

The increase comes amid sustained rises in fuel prices, which have affected transport operators and other businesses that depend heavily on road transport.

UBOS reported that annual liquid energy fuels inflation jumped to 16.6 percent in May from 7.7 percent in April.

The rise in fuel costs pushed Energy Fuel and Utilities inflation to 9.1 percent, up from 6.1 percent recorded the previous month.

Petrol prices increased by 16.6 percent compared to 8.7 percent in April, while diesel inflation accelerated to 21.5 percent from 10.8 percent. Kerosene prices also registered a significant increase of 25.4 percent, up from 7.5 percent recorded a month earlier.

The statistics body noted that fuel price movements were among the most significant contributors to inflation during the month under review.

Despite the increase in headline inflation, some food items became cheaper, helping to moderate overall price pressures.

Annual food crops and related items inflation declined to 0.2 percent in May from 0.6 percent in April.

The decline was attributed to falling prices for several staple foods, including matooke, sweet potatoes, fresh beans and dry beans.

UBOS said matooke prices fell by 3.4 percent compared to an increase of 14.1 percent recorded in April, while sweet potato prices declined by 10.5 percent.

Fresh beans registered a price decline of 30.1 percent, while dry beans fell by 2.6 percent during the period.

Core goods inflation also eased to 1.7 percent in May from 2.0 percent in April.

The bureau attributed the slowdown to lower inflation for maize flour, fish, rice and sugar.

Sugar prices continued to decline, registering a price change of minus 5.8 percent compared to minus 3.4 percent recorded in April.

The latest figures indicate that Uganda’s inflation remains relatively stable compared to levels seen in many countries grappling with higher energy and food costs.

The overall Consumer Price Index rose to 141.09 in May from 140.13 recorded in April, reflecting a gradual increase in the general price level of goods and services.

Economists say the outlook for inflation in the coming months will largely depend on movements in global fuel prices and domestic transport costs.

With fuel accounting for a significant share of business operating expenses, sustained increases could eventually feed into the prices of other goods and services.

However, lower food prices continue to provide some relief to consumers and help contain broader inflationary pressures.

The May inflation figures suggest that while Uganda’s economy remains relatively stable, rising fuel costs are emerging as a key risk to price stability and household purchasing power.