How Museveni and NRM engineered a sweeping 2026 election victory

When the Electoral Commission finally declared President Yoweri Museveni the winner of the 2026 General Election, the scale of the victory told a story far bigger than numbers on a tally sheet. With 7,946,772 votes—71.65 percent of the total cast, Museveni not only secured another five-year term but also reaffirmed the National Resistance Movement’s (NRM) grip on Uganda’s political landscape, sweeping 15 of the country’s 16 sub-regions and reclaiming parliamentary ground once thought permanently lost.

For the ruling party, the 2026 election was not simply a contest of personalities. It was a test of an argument the NRM had been making relentlessly since its bruising setbacks in 2021: that service delivery, economic empowerment and state presence at the grassroots would ultimately outweigh protest politics.

 “People voted for programmes they can see in their villages and parishes—money reaching households, schools, health centres, water, electricity and skills for their children. That is what carried the day,” said Emmanuel Dombo, the NRM Director for Communication.

A nationwide mandate

With the exception of Buganda, every sub-region delivered Museveni a landslide, producing one of the most geographically uniform victories of his long political career. From Ankole to West Nile, Karamoja to Kigezi, Busoga to Acholi, the NRM’s message resonated across regions with vastly different political histories and socio-economic profiles.

In Ankole and Kigezi, districts such as Mbarara, Bushenyi, Ntungamo, Sheema, Kabale and Rukiga backed Museveni overwhelmingly, buoyed by sustained investment in commercial agriculture, road connectivity and electricity expansion. Farmers cited access to markets and rural electrification as decisive.

Bunyoro and Tooro, long viewed as development bellwethers, also voted heavily for Museveni. In oil-host districts like Hoima, Kikuube and Masindi, voters pointed to oil roads, health facilities and compensation frameworks, while districts such as Kabarole and Kamwenge credited improvements in education and water access.

Northern Uganda—once an opposition stronghold—delivered emphatic margins. In Acholi, Lango and West Nile, districts including Gulu, Kitgum, Lira, Apac, Arua and Yumbe voted decisively for Museveni, reflecting what NRM officials describe as the “peace dividend”: roads, schools, hospitals and livelihood programmes implemented after years of conflict.

“Across regions, the pattern was the same,” Dombo said. “Where services improved, support followed. Politics is local, and delivery at district level mattered more than slogans.”

Former NRM Vice Chairperson for Buganda Godfrey Kiwanda said the party would work to fulfil its pledges to the region as a way of repaying voters for their support.

“We have recaptured more of our seats, and as we have done in the past, we will ensure that the people of Buganda continue to enjoy the benefits of the NRM government as we protect the gains achieved so far,” Kiwanda said.

Buganda: from rejection to recovery

The most politically symbolic shift of the 2026 election occurred in Buganda, the only sub-region Museveni narrowly lost—but also the region where his recovery was most striking.

Museveni polled 1,157,832 votes (49.25 percent), losing to National Unity Platform (NUP) leader Robert Kyagulanyi by fewer than 3,000 votes. The margin stood in sharp contrast to the 2021 elections, when Kyagulanyi defeated Museveni in Buganda by more than 600,000 votes, dominating urban and peri-urban districts such as Wakiso, Mukono and Kyotera.

Out of Buganda’s 26 districts, Museveni won 13, matching Kyagulanyi district for district. His victories were concentrated in the cattle corridor and rural districts—including Kiboga, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke, Nakasongola, Mubende and parts of Kassanda—while Kyagulanyi retained strength in central and southern districts, as well as much of Kampala.

For NRM, the near-parity result was proof that a deliberate, five-year re-engagement strategy had paid off.

“We did not abandon Buganda after 2021,” Dombo said. “We went back, listened, addressed land issues, rolled out PDM, expanded schools and health facilities, and explained government programmes parish by parish. That is why the gap closed.”

Parliamentary dominance restored

Beyond the presidency, the NRM emerged from the 2026 elections with renewed dominance in Parliament, reclaiming constituencies that had fallen to the opposition in 2021 and strengthening its legislative hand.

In Buganda alone, the ruling party flipped at least 23 parliamentary seats previously held by NUP, including Bukomansimbi, Butambala, Mityana Woman MP seat, Kawempe South, Kampala Central, Nakawa East, Entebbe Municipality, Nakaseke Central, Mawokota North, Kakuuto County, Bukoto East and Busiro North.

NRM Deputy Secretary General Rose Namayanja said the parliamentary resurgence reflected improved grassroots mobilisation and closer engagement between MPs and communities.

“In 2021, we had about 35 MPs in Buganda. Now we have confirmed more than 70,” she said. “People wanted representatives who follow up on programmes and service delivery.”

At the heart of the NRM’s 2026 strategy was the Parish Development Model (PDM)—a flagship programme designed to move households from subsistence to the money economy by channeling funds directly to parish-level enterprises.

Across Buganda, PDM disbursement averaged about 86 percent of funds received, injecting tens of billions of shillings into local economies. Wakiso district, despite its strong opposition history, received more than Shs52.8 billion, benefiting over 47,000 households, with government planning to increase allocations due to population pressure.

Similar patterns played out in Mubende, Mityana, Buikwe, Rakai, Kassanda, Kiboga and Nakaseke, where PDM and Emyooga SACCO financing supported traders, youth and informal workers.

Education infrastructure also featured prominently. Seed Secondary Schools were constructed to eliminate sub-counties without public secondary schools in districts such as Mubende, Kyankwanzi, Kalungu, Lwengo, Kyotera, Kalangala, Mpigi and Butambala, while health facilities—including HCIIIs, HCIVs and hospitals—were upgraded across Rakai, Mubende, Nakaseke and parts of Wakiso.

Access to safe water exceeded 90 percent in districts such as Wakiso, Buikwe, Mpigi and Rakai, while continued investment targeted low-coverage areas like Kassanda and Kyotera. Electricity connectivity expanded steadily, and Presidential Industrial Hubs in Mubende, Masaka and Kayunga trained thousands of youths in vocational skills.

“These are not abstract achievements,” Dombo said. “They are things voters interact with every day. When a health centre is upgraded or money reaches a household, politics changes.”

NRM officials also credit disciplined mobilisation under the “Buganda for Museveni” campaign, targeted youth outreach, and resolution of long-standing land disputes—particularly through issuance of land titles to bibanja holders in districts such as Mubende, Kassanda and Gomba.

At the same time, the ruling party benefited from organisational weaknesses and internal divisions within the opposition, especially in urban constituencies where some MPs were accused of disengaging from their electorates after 2021.

Still, NRM leaders insist the decisive factor was delivery, not opposition missteps.

“This election should teach all leaders something,” Dombo said. “People reward those who work. If you guide communities to embrace government programmes, they move forward—and they remember who stood with them.”

As Museveni embarks on another term, the 2026 elections stand as a defining moment for the NRM’s development-centred political model. The party has framed the outcome as validation of its long-held belief that state presence at the grassroots—through roads, schools, health centres, water, electricity and livelihoods—remains Uganda’s most powerful political currency.

From remote parishes to Parliament, the NRM’s message found traction: that stability and service delivery, not protest alone, win elections.