Uganda’s inflation eases to 3.1% in November on falling food prices

KAMPALA, UGANDA – Uganda’s headline annual inflation rate slowed to 3.1 percent for the 12 months ending November 2025, according to data released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) on Friday.

This represents a modest decline from 3.4 percent in October 2025 and brings the rate closer to the Bank of Uganda’s medium-term target. Analysts attribute the moderation primarily to stabilising prices and significant drops in the cost of staple food crops.

Annual core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, also declined, moving to 3.2 percent in November from 3.4 percent the previous month. Both core goods and services contributed to the easing trend.

Services inflation slowed to 4.2 percent from 4.5 percent, largely reflecting a deceleration in passenger transport by air and the cost of food and beverage services. Core goods inflation fell to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent, with maize flour prices recording a 7.8 percent increase, slower than previous months.

The most notable driver of the overall slowdown was food crops and related items, which saw inflation fall dramatically from 6.1 percent in October to just 1.5 percent in November 2025. UBOS highlighted major price relief for staples such as dry beans, which recorded a negative price change of 10.1 percent, tomatoes (-1.1 percent), and sweet potatoes (-2.5 percent), indicating improved supply conditions across the country.

Contrary to the general downward trend, annual Energy, Fuel, and Utilities (EFU) inflation jumped sharply to 1.2 percent in November from 0.1 percent in October. UBOS attributed the increase to rising domestic energy costs, including a 12.3 percent surge in charcoal prices and higher firewood costs, reflecting ongoing pressures on household energy consumption.

Inflation varied significantly across regions. Kampala High Income households recorded the highest annual inflation at 5.5 percent, while Masaka centre followed at 4.2 percent, driven mainly by rising clothing, footwear, and transport costs. In contrast, Mbale centre registered the lowest inflation rate at just 0.7 percent, highlighting a more stable price environment in eastern Uganda.

Outlook
With food prices easing and infrastructure improvements supporting distribution, economists suggest that inflation is likely to remain near the Bank of Uganda’s target in the coming months, though rising energy costs could pose short-term pressures.